The stock market’s 8-plus month rally remains in effect as we move into the third quarter, and the second half of 2023. The NASDAQ-100 gained +15% in Q2 and is up 38.75% for the year! It has been the best first half for the Nasdaq Composite since 1983, which is remarkable given that it has occurred in the midst of an aggressive tightening cycle by the Federal Reserve, 14 consecutive monthly declines in the Leading Economic Index, and a recession in the manufacturing sector. It has been an impressive rally and we’ve been on the right side of it since last October when it began, while most others were still bearish. However, my macro forecast suggests that the second half of 2023 is going to look different than the first half of the year.
That doesn’t mean that there’s not money to be made, but I do believe that it is VERY likely that those opportunities are not going to be in the same places we have seen them all of 2023 thus far. I think that’s going to surprise and catch a lot of investors and traders off guard, just as the now 8+ month rally did when most everyone on the street were still trading and investing as if we were in a bear market. Even some of the largest and most well respected hedge funds in the world got it wrong. We did not.
My new website, with more features including a Discord room for subscribers, will be live shortly. You still have some time to subscribe to Wolf On Wall Street-Trade and be grandfathered in at my 2008 subscription prices when the new website, The Technical Take, goes live, which will save you about 30%! There are not many opportunities these days to beat inflation, and beat the market to boot!
As you’ll see in this video, and my videos over the last month or so, I think things are going to get surprisingly wild for the markets very soon. That smells like opportunity to me.
Have a happy and safe Fourth of July Holiday!